In the heat of the summer, everyone eagerly awaits the monsoon because of its refreshing showers. On one hand, rising temperatures have alarmed global organizations, and on the other, the arrival of the monsoon also sounds a danger alarm.
Monsoon rains from July to September change the weather, with heavy rains in some areas and very little in others. This time, the monsoon is expected to be different, with not only heavy rains anticipated but also higher than usual temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan. You may not believe it, but this forecast has already been made…
On June 4th and 5th, a National Monsoon Conference was held at NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority) where representatives from the Meteorological Department, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Railways, PDMA Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan Commission for Indus Waters, National Highway Authority, rescue organizations, provincial irrigation departments, welfare organizations, including the UN and INGOs, participated. Both the Meteorological Department and NDMA have forecasted heavy rains for Monsoon 2024. According to NDMA’s technical team and the Pakistan Meteorological Department, this year, the country is expected to receive 40-60% more rainfall than usual during the monsoon, which could lead to river flooding and flooding in low-lying areas.
After the briefing, NDMA’s Technical Wing Head Dr. Tayyab Shah spoke specially, stating that more than usual rainfall and higher than usual temperatures are expected during the monsoon season, with Sindh likely to be severely affected by heavy rains. Balochistan is also expected to receive above-average rainfall, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Kashmir are expected to receive normal rainfall. However, it is alarming that temperatures will be higher than normal in Gilgit-Baltistan, Azad Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where there are more glaciers…
Why will the temperature be higher? This is concerning. I asked Dr. Tayyab why the temperature is expected to be higher during the monsoon season with rainfall, and what will happen in Gilgit-Baltistan? The local people should be aware of the weather conditions in advance. Can a heatwave occur during the monsoon?
Seeing my concern, Dr. Tayyab replied that during the monsoon, we not only look at temperature but also humidity. Usually, humidity is higher in July and August, especially in coastal areas, and then we see heat-like conditions which we call heatwave, heat stress, or heat index. The heat index can increase in Gilgit-Baltistan, and not only that, but higher than normal temperatures can also cause glacial lake outburst flooding. This can happen in the northern regions of Pakistan.
Dr. Tayyab further explained that every month of 2024 has been warmer in terms of temperature, and less snow cover can lead to higher temperatures. With less snowfall in January, February, and March, powder snow melted, leading to higher ground temperatures. Besides higher temperatures during the monsoon season, the flooding situation in Gilgit-Baltistan will be due to more melting. Besides Gilgit-Baltistan, alarming conditions have been indicated in other provinces as well.
Severe flooding is also likely in rivers. The Jhelum, Chenab, Sutlej, and Ravi rivers have a higher risk of flooding, and there is a greater likelihood of flash flooding in the Koh Suleiman and Koh Kirthar ranges. Qambar, Shahdadkot, Dadu, and Lasbela could face flooding due to heavy rains. Jhal Magsi, Dera Murad Jamali, Sanghar, Mirpur Khas, Thatta, Badin, Kashmore, and Ghotki are also at risk of flooding. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the flow of water in the Panjkora and Swat rivers could increase. Nowshera and Khairabad have a higher risk of flooding.
The concern is what preemptive actions all relevant institutions are taking. The Meteorological Department will forecast, and NDMA will issue advisories. The National Emergency Operations Center at NDMA is monitoring everything, but while these institutions will inform in time, other relevant institutions shared past data at this National Monsoon Conference, detailing the losses of 2022, but did not provide a plan for dealing with flooding or rescue plans for heavy rains to minimize damage.
Currently, Pakistan is facing the threats of climate change, resulting in economic losses. However, institutions need a timely coordinated strategy and comprehensive plan. In light of past experiences, preemptive measures are essential, and awareness programs in heavily affected areas are also necessary.
